Since its inception, the Christian church has been a bastion of faith, hope, as well as controversy. It survived immediate intense persecution, survived the Dark Ages, the Inquisition, the Holy Wars, but still experienced great revival and growth. Nevertheless, what about the 21st Century? What future might the Church face in ten years, thirty years, fifty years? Will its current institutions and structures keep up with hyper-change? Will its large congregations dissolve into smaller groups reminiscent of the apostolic age?
From Bible prophecy, we know the end . . . we even know some of the detail leading to the end of the world. But, what about the years preceding that fulfillment? What is the responsibility of the Church to engage the future? For the sake of argument, step away from Bible prophecy. Look at the Church as an organization (which it is) and engage in futures thinking as one who wants it to be viable, sustainable, growing, and effective.
Dr. James Canton, renowned futurist and author, makes an unsettling statement when listing his ten top threats that could kill America’s future. Number one on his list is “religious fundamentalism that is intolerant and restricts personal freedoms.”[1] Does this “threat” include Christians who disagree with certain lifestyles, the taking of innocent human life, or caution against genetic and biometric engineering that alters the human species? If this moves forward and there is backlash against Christian morals, would the Church be prepared to alter the way it is structured, the way we worship, associate, and evangelize?
I present for your consideration one of many tools your organization can use to prepare itself for the future. This is not an in-depth presentation of futures thinking but a wake-up call to us, the Church of Jesus Christ. Uncertainty is our reality. Preparing for uncertainty is our responsibility.
Scenario planning is a formal disciplined methodology consisting of a four-tiered eighteen-step approach. This is not looking into a crystal ball. This is not coming up with generalized views of feared or desired futures, or predictions. Scenarios are clear descriptions of significant plausible alternative futures. They are specific “decision-focused” views of the future resulting from insightful analysis and predictions. They are “frameworks for structuring leaders’ perceptions about alternative future environments in which decisions might be played out.”[2]
To benefit from this tool, Ralston and Wilson present the following explanation to their definition helpful advice for anyone who wants to prepare the Church for uncertainty:
- scenarios are frameworks for structuring – in the context of planning, scenarios have a specific purposeful role. They are carefully defined explorations of the future that planning must address and strategy will need to deal with. The structure of the scenarios (stories) must be tight enough to give discipline, coherence, and relevance to the final project yet loose enough to be able to embrace creativity, and at times, unconventional insights.
- leaders’ perceptions – since scenarios are intended to be used as key frameworks for strategy development, they must reflect the thinking of those who will ultimately be responsible for developing and executing the strategies. As such, the decision makers must understand and accept the reasoning that led to the development and selection of the scenarios; ownership is paramount.
- about alternative future environments – it is important to establish a set of scenarios, not just one. Since we are dealing with an uncertain future, developing a number of scenarios enables us to develop strategies that could be implemented if any number of different events occurred. Our objective is to determine the possible futures, envision the probable but enhance the prospect of our preferable futures.
- in which their decisions might be played out – the scenarios are to be used in the strategy-development process, thus need to be decision focused. As such, the plausible stories (scenarios) generated by this exercise need to concentrate on key trends and forces that are needed to address and execute decisions.
What if the federal government passed legislation eliminating the tax-free benefit to religious organizations? Would church buildings close because of the tax burden? Would contributions decrease since there is no longer a charitable giving deduction provided? What if youth visually received the internet as a live feed via their corneas?
What would happen to those engaged in the emerging cyperchurch? Would the millions Christian pollster and sociologist George Barna predicted would never travel physically to church but instead roam the Internet in search of meaningful spiritual experiences,[3] suddenly dissolve into cyberspace? Remember, the scenario model’s limitation is hindered only by the imagination, or lack of imagination, following insightful analysis.
The church stands at a critical time in its existence. The world is experiencing incredible, fundamental changes. The future is uncertain and preparing for uncertainties has not been an exercise typically engaged in by the church. We must enhance our ability to observe, record, and analyze the changing patterns of the world around us. We must adapt principles that strive to answer the question “what if.”[4]
Whether we derive these patterns of change through quantitative or qualitative research, we identify these possible outcomes as scenarios, alternative images of the future. Futures studies is a transdisciplinary, systems-science-based approach that involves analyzing patters of change in the past, identifying trends of change in the present, and extrapolating alternative scenarios of possible change in the future in order to help us create the futures we most desire. It does not make predictions. We only know there are not future facts and that tomorrow will be nothing like today. In twenty years, what will your “religious experience” look like?